R^2 score caculated for linear regression model.
Average difference between projected and actual price. Positive number means actual price was on average higher than projected. Those average values are calculated for last 1458 days.
This is the period between two halvings (full cycle).
Estimated date for next halving. It will be at block #1,050,000.
Difference between expected number of blocks generated in one day (144 blocks per day / 10 minutes per block) and average number of blocks that were generated per day in last 365 days period (146.09 blocks per day).
Income in Bitcoins that miners were getting per block on average in last 365 days.
Subsidy that miners were getting as a reward for mining per block on average in last 365 days.
Average amount of Bitcoins that miners were collecting as a transaction fee per block in last 365 days.
Difference between average income per block in last 365 days and average income per block 365 days before.
Amount of active Bitcoins in last 10 years. This number is used as 'stock' in a stock/income calculation. Many Bitcoins, especially in the first years, were permanently lost and they are not going to move (send/receive) ever again. This was because, at that time, Bitcoin was worthless so users did not invest effort to keep their keys and lost them.
Number of all mined Bitcoins (in percent) that were moving (sending/receiving) in last 10 years.
Market capitalization of active Bitcoins.
Difference between active coins at the end of the last observed day and number of active coins 365 days before that.
Current projected price based on stock to income model.
Stock to income value.
Closing Bitcoin price on the last day of the observed period (2024-12-23).
Difference between actual and projected price.
Bitcoin Stock to Income Model
The Stock to Income model compares the total stock of Bitcoin against the miner's total income, which consists of the subsidy (reward for mining) and fees for transactions. It's essential to include fees in the calculation since over time, the block subsidy (reward) will become less and less important for miners, and block fees will become their primary source of income. The model uses a moving average for the last 365 days to calculate the average subsidy and fees per day. For future calculations, it assumes that fees will be the same as their average in the last 365 days. The Stock to Income model considers stock to be the number of active coins in the last ten years. This is because many Bitcoins were lost during the first few years of its existence due to its insignificant value at the time. Bitcoin users were losing or forgetting their keys, and once that happens, those coins can be considered non-existent and make no sense to include them as stock. The model is recalculated every five minutes.
